Economic modelling and impact analysis

Economic modelling and impact analysis provide government, economists and public policy practitioners with invaluable evidence and insights into the outcomes of economic, regulatory and public policy decision-making.

ACIL Allen Consulting is one of Australia’s leading providers of economic modelling services to both the public and private sectors. We are experienced in developing and applying a range of economic modelling techniques to solve complex economic problems and measure the impacts on the economy.

How ACIL Allen Consulting can help you

ACIL Allen Consulting has provided economic modelling services to our clients including:

  • computable general equilibrium – CGE - modelling
  • real options modelling
  • regulatory pricing
  • business competitiveness
  • market modelling
  • population forecasting
  • demographic modelling and trends
  • future skills demand
  • labour market modelling
  • economic impact studies.

Computable general equilibrium modelling

Our computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, Tasman Global, can analyse the impact of policy and commercial decisions globally, nationally and regionally.

Tasman Global is designed to account for all sectors within an economy and all economies across the world. The model is able to determine the impacts of various economic changes on production, consumption and trade at the macroeconomic and industry levels.

A dynamic model such as Tasman Global is beneficial when analysing issues where both the timing and the adjustment path that economies follow are relevant in the analysis.

ACIL Allen Consulting has applied this model to policy analysis, project evaluation and economic impact analysis across a wide range of sectors.

In addition, ACIL Allen Consulting has the capability to undertake analysis with a range of other CGE models, including the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model of the global economy developed by GTAP at Purdue University, and models of the Australian economy developed by the Centre of Policy Studies (CoPS) at Monash University, such as the Monash Multi-Regional Forecasting (MMRF) model and The Enormous Regional Model (TERM).

Real options modelling — risk-based decision tools

For more than 20 years we have advised clients using investment evaluation models, developed within ACIL Allen Consulting, that are today recognised as real options valuation models. Many would also recognise strong elements of decision-tree and portfolio analysis methods in these approaches.

These tools were applied initially to support advice on the development of R&D strategies and portfolios, and have now been incorporated into the internal planning systems of some large R&D organisations.

The real options model, and the underlying approach to risk-based investment planning and decision-making, have since been developed for broader application, particularly in volatile energy and commodity markets, and in relation to very long-term commitments, such as infrastructure and defence projects.

Market modelling

ACIL Allen Consulting has developed leading economic modelling applications for the Australian gas and electricity markets, the Australian national economy, transport modes, and water supply.

ACIL Allen Consulting has combined our knowledge and expertise to develop energy market models, PowerMark, RECMark and GasMark Global, to provide analytical and strategic advice on energy markets.

These models have been used to assist in:

  • asset valuations and due diligence, including risk assessment
  • the timing of new developments
  • gas and electricity procurement and contracting
  • forecasting and scenario planning.

In addition, ACIL Allen Consulting has also provided financial and policy evaluation models, which can be applied to scenario and planning analysis, regulatory pricing determinations and ad hoc analysis across a range of industries.

Forecasting and demographic trends

Demographic modelling helps organisations understand possible future states of the world by making projections of future population size and age structure based on current population, fertility and morbidity rates, and migration rates.

ACIL Allen Consulting has an in-house population demographic and resource use model that can project population data and resource needs out to 2050.

Skills and labour market modelling

Future skills demand and labour market modelling help governments, industry, business, and the education sector identify where skills shortages and labour market constraints may emerge in the future.

This enables the development and targeting of forward-looking skills, training, and education policies to better match skilled labour with industry needs.

ACIL Allen Consulting has extensive experience in developing customised skills, education, and labour market models. Examples include the ACILTasman Labour Market Model and ACIL Allen Consulting's work on the Gonski Review, which forms the basis for the Commonwealth Government’s reforms to school funding.

Economic modelling and impact analysis studies

ACIL Allen Consulting has used a range of economic models and methodologies to undertake economic impact analysis studies, including benefit-cost analysis, market modelling, CGE modelling, real options analysis, demographic and labour market analysis, and assessment of industry development impacts.

For further information about economic modelling and impact analysis please contact Guy Jakeman